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☆ Would the Fed really hike rates here? This is what would have to happen
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Though it was unthinkable just a short time ago, the question of what it would take the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further is gaining increasing attention. New York Fed President John Williams faced questioning Thursday about hiking and said he doesn't expect that to happen, but noted that it's always an option. "Basically, if the data were telling us that we would need higher interest rates to achieve our goal, then we would obviously want to do that." Making the same mistake as the 1970s central bank — hiking rates to fight inflation, then cutting prematurely and allowing inflation to return — is a sensitive issue for the Powell Fed. Chances are low, for now So far, only Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has given any credence to the notion of raising rates.

Persons: John Williams, it's, Williams, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Powell, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Esther George Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, New York Fed, Summit, DataTrek, CME, Kansas City, CNBC Locations: Washington, Kansas

☆ The market again has adjusted its view on rate cuts, with as few as two now expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"While investors seem to be anxiously awaiting easing monetary policy, the current environment does not quite scream 'rate cuts!'" That sentiment has manifested itself lately in market pricing. That same day, the Labor Department will release the CPI report, which is expected to show the headline inflation rate rising 3.4% in March on a year-over-year basis, per Dow Jones. This is nonetheless "the right time to cut rates," wrote David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. "What has underpinned this market is the promise of a series of rate cuts including March, and now it has dwindled to just a few rate cuts.

Persons: Glenmede, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Ed Yardeni, nonfarm, Quincy Krosby, Krosby Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Labor Department, Asset Management, Fed, DataTrek, Yardeni, LPL

☆ Nvidia's terrible Friday gives traders a preview of what a momentum unwind would look like
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-09 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The S & P 500 Volatility Index finished the week near 15 and is in a clear three- month uptrend from its mid-December low near 12, even as the S & P 500 has gained 10% since then. In fact, Friday the market minimized the headline damage to a mere two-thirds-percent dip in the S & P 500 through its signature rotational impulse. Some indicators — such as speculators remaining net short S & P 500 futures and brokerage strategists' muted index targets — imply the helpful wall of worry is not quite fully scaled. Since then, the S & P has delivered a 16.7% annualized total return, even after two bear markets and two other severe/prolonged corrections. And the S & P is only up 7% from its high 26 months ago, hardly in thin air.

Persons: what's, Eli Lilly, Martin Marietta, Nick Colas, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Costco, pharma, Martin Marietta Materials, Vulcan, 3Fourteen Research, NYSE, Nasdaq, DataTrek, Citi

☆ S&P on pace to score fourth month of consecutive gains. History tells us what could come next
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500 is ending February with a gain of almost 5%. S & P 500: Four big months November: up 8.9% December: up 4.4% January: up 1.6% February: up 4.6% The November gain of 8.9% was one of the 20 best monthly performances in history. The S & P has advanced about 5% since passing the old January 2022 historic high, which it crossed on Jan. 19, this year. Put another way: the S & P has recovered all the bear market losses from the old high in January 2022 to the bear market bottom in October 2022, and added another 5%. "Yet it also offers encouragement that no post-recovery selloff saw the start of a new bear market before rebounding and proceeding onto additional new highs."

Persons: Steve Starker, Todd Sohn, Eli Lilly, Nicholas Colas, Sam Stovall Organizations: Nvidia, P, Technology, Services, Care, Broadcom, Communication Services, Meta, Health Care, Merck, Depot, Costco, JPMorgan, Mastercard, Berkshire Hathaway, Research Locations: BTIG

☆ Wall Street's favorite recession gauge has been flashing for 16 months, but the other key ingredient of a downturn is nowhere to be seen
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A key recession signal has been flashing for 16 months, but the other half of a downturn is missing. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The firm pointed out that the spread between the 10-year and three-month treasury yields has been inverted for 16 months. Advertisement10-year minus 3-month Treasury yields from 1982 Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisThat said, the inverted curve only accounts for 50% of a solid recession call. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's chief economist, Ellen Zentner, warned that a "hard landing" downturn is guaranteed as the impact of Fed rate hikes still hasn't been felt fully throughout the economy.

Persons: —, Louis That, Jamie Dimon, Morgan Stanley's, Ellen Zentner Organizations: Service, DataTrek Research, Treasury, Reserve Bank of St, Fed, JPMorgan Locations: downturns, Kuwait

☆ Citi is betting big on high-profile executives to turn things around
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

In today's big story, we're looking at the reshuffling of top executives at two of the biggest US banks . Viswas Raghavan, JPMorgan's top dealmaker, has joined Citi as its head of banking and executive vice chair, reporting directly to CEO Jane Fraser. The move is a big deal, but even more shocking since Raghavan was just promoted to be the sole head of JPMorgan's deals business. Since high interest rates aren't stopping stocks from reaching record highs, cuts might not come at all this year , according to analyst Jim Bianco. Market vet Ed Yardeni said interest rates are actually in a sweet spot for stocks, similar to the late '90s.

Persons: Viswas Raghavan, Jane Fraser, Raghavan, Filippo Gori, Doug Petno, Insider's Reed Alexander, Patrick T, Fallon, Fraser, Merrill Lynch, Andy Sieg, Warren Buffett, Warren, Berkshire Hathaway's, Jim Bianco, Ed Yardeni, Gemini, Demis Hassabis, Long, Alyssa Powell, they've, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock Organizations: Citi, JPMorgan, Warren, Warren Buffett REUTERS, Chip, Berkshire, Buffett, Research, Wall, BI, Google, eBay Locations: Bronx, Gori, Rivian, New York, London

☆ Millennials Won the Stock Market Boom, Proved They're Good Investors
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Emily Stewart | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

It turns out the Robinhood crowd was onto something when they piled into the stock market during the pandemic. As of 2019, people under 40 held 4.9% of total US wealth even though they’re 37% of the population. People over 54, who make up a similar share of the population, held 71.6% of total wealth. Nearing the end of 2023, under-40s controlled 6.7% of total wealth, while those over 54 had 72.8%. Now, the challenge is to try to keep at it, get some more luck in the stock market and, God willing, their own homes.

Persons: —, Young, Millennials, Zers, they’re, “, Nick Colas, ”, Colas, Ernst & Young, It’s, millennials, Emily Stewart Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, DataTrek, Ernst &, Bloomberg, Business Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, America

☆ Fed Governor Waller sounded 'dovish' in speech today, says Vital Knowledge's Adam Crisafulli
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Governor Waller sounded 'dovish' in speech today, says Vital Knowledge's Adam CrisafulliAdam Crisafulli, Vital Knowledge Co-Founder and Nick Colas, Datatrek Research Co-Founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.

Persons: Waller, Vital, Adam Crisafulli Adam Crisafulli, Nick Colas Organizations: Research

☆ After a banner 2023, the market faces a tough challenge for a repeat performance
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-02 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Since 1928, the S & P 500 has finished up 20% or more about 36% of the time. Yes, 2022 was down about 19%, but the S & P has posted declines of 10% or more only 12% of the time since 1928. Could the S & P gain 20% again in 2024? That run from 1995 to 1999 was certainly epic, but that was the last time the S & P 500 saw back-to-back 20% gains. Regardless, with the S & P 500 closing the year at 4,769, a 20% gain next year would mean the S & P would hit 5,722.

Persons: Ben Carlson, Jessica Rabe, Nicholas Colas, Tom Lee, John Stoltzfus Organizations: Ritholtz Wealth Management, DataTrek Research, Fundstrat Global Advisors, Oppenheimer Asset Management

☆ These 16 states are already in a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Sixteen US states' economies contracted between July and October, according to the Philadelphia Fed. While some economists believe a recession may come in the next year, the economies of 33 states grew. Meanwhile, looking at just the past month, 27 states experienced economic contraction. AdvertisementThe economies of sixteen US states contracted between July and October, even as economists are still betting the US can avoid a recession. Looking at month-over-month rates, 27 states experienced economic contraction, while just 16 grew.

Persons: —, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, Ken Griffin Organizations: Philadelphia Fed, Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, National Bureau of Economic, Citadel, Bloomberg Locations: West Virginia, Wisconsin, Montana, Missouri , Illinois, Iowa, , Maryland, North Dakota, South Carolina, Texas, Nevada and Wyoming . California, Florida, California, Florida , Pennsylvania , Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina

☆ A default cycle has started amid the Fed's high interest rates, economists say. These 4 charts explain how severe it is.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A default cycle has started, spurred by high rates and debt costs, economists at Apollo Management said. Data on default rates and bankruptcy filings show just how severe the situation is. Advertisement"A default cycle has started with bankruptcy filings rising, and default rates will continue to rise over the coming quarters, impacting in particular middle market companies," they added. US Speculative grade default rates Apollo Management"The ongoing rise in default rates is not just a 'normalization.' AdvertisementUS bankruptcy filings Apollo ManagementWeekly bankruptcy filings for companies with at least $50 million in liabilities Apollo ManagementSløk has previously said that the Fed's rate hikes were to blame for higher bankruptcies.

Persons: —, Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Apollo Management Sløk, Nicholas Colas, Moody's Organizations: Apollo Management, Service, HY, Apollo, DataTrek, Management Locations: Moody's, Europe

☆ Hedge funds have lost $43 billion trying to short the market as the S&P 500 eyes its best month in over a year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Hedge fund short sellers have lost $43 billion in recent days as stocks rally, the Financial Times reported. The S&P 500 is on track for its best month since July 2022. With a more than 7% gain in November, the S&P 500 is on pace for its best month since July 2022. AdvertisementThe FT notes that analysts say some hedge funds have had to repurchase stocks to cover their short bets as a "short squeeze" pushed share prices even higher. According to S3 data, bets against technology, healthcare, and consumer discretionary were the most painful for hedge funds.

Persons: —, Stocks, Goldman Sachs, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe Organizations: Financial Times, Service, Wednesday Financial, S3 Partners, Federal Reserve, Carnival Corp

☆ A key historical indicator says the latest stock market rally is poised to push on through the end of the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The S&P 500's sector correlations suggest the current rally can go to year-end, DataTrek Research said. The indicator is a sign of investor confidence, and it's hovering near levels seen around bull markets of the past. AdvertisementThe stock market is in the midst of a strong November rally, and according to DataTrek Research, the gains could last through year-end thanks to a key historical trend. "When [investors] see clear skies ahead, correlations tend to be low as they pick and choose between individual sectors and stocks," Colas and Rabe said. When correlations hover above that level, stocks tend to be under pressure; when they are below, stocks tend to rally like they did in 2020-2021, and between January and July of this year.

Persons: —, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, Colas, Rabe Organizations: Research, Service

☆ ETFs that track meme stocks have been surging, as 'animal spirits' return to markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Meme stocks have been on the rise recently as November's market rally brings a wave of bullishness. "The upshot: the reemergence of meme stocks shows investors' animal spirits are starting to run hot again," DataTrek said. AdvertisementMEME, BOTZ, and IWO have seen gains of 10.8%, 6.6%, and 5.9%, respectively, while the S&P 500 has gained 3.1% in that stretch. AdvertisementStill, the recent outperformance for funds with exposure to meme stocks reflect "generally bullish market conditions," Colas and Rabe maintained. DataTrek also noted on Tuesday that S&P 500 sector correlations suggests the November stock rally should continue through the end of the year.

Persons: —, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, iShares Russell, DataTrek, Colas, Rabe Organizations: Service, Robotics, Treasury, IWO, GameStop, AMC

☆ CHART OF THE DAY: Recession fears appear to be cooling among US companies
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Mentions of inflation were down to 55% of companies in the third quarter, down from a peak of 83% in 2022. Taken together, the "recession" and "inflation" mentions points to moderating, but still persistent unease among companies. "Stocks have shrugged off recession fears, but they remain elevated at many companies. But they also note that the still-elevated mentions of inflation and recession don't necessarily bode poorly for stock performance. Big Wall Street firms are mixed in their outlook for the economy next year.

Persons: —, disinflation, DataTrek, DataTrek cofounders Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, Colas, Rabe, bode, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Research, Wall Street, Wall, Bloomberg, JPMorgan Locations: America

☆ November's stock gains look like a bear market rally as yields fall, and further upside is unlikely, Morgan Stanley's top strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Morgan Stanley's top strategist says stock gains at the start of November are just a bear market rally. "We think last week's rally in stocks was mainly a function of the fall in back-end Treasury yields." AdvertisementAdvertisementMajor stock indexes are coming off their strongest weekly performances of the year, but to Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's top stock strategist, further upside is likely limited and the fresh gains to start November are merely a bear market rally. Instead, the market was simply reacting to the plunge in bond yields after the benchmark 10-year government bond hit the highest level since 2007. DataTrek Research noted Monday that the S&P 500 could return to its July high of 4,589 if bond yields drop below 4%.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's, —, Mike Wilson, Morgan, Wilson, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley chalked Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of America

☆ Rising air pollution in China suggests its economy is growing faster and oil prices will climb
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Rising air pollution in China suggests its economy in on track to see a jump in growth, according to DataTrek Research. Oil prices should rise if China's economy is accelerating, as its air quality suggests. This proves our basis point that air pollution readings can give investors an early call on a country's economy," DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas said. In fact, the air quality in Beijing has seen a "very visible" increase in air pollution in the last two weeks, as has Guangzhou, Chongqing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai. AdvertisementAdvertisementTo be sure, it will take weeks for the recent rise in China's air pollution to register in the official economic data.

Persons: DataTrek, —, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Brent Organizations: Research, Service, DataTrek Research Locations: China, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Shenzhen, Shanghai

☆ The US consumer is starting to crack
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

AdvertisementAdvertisementEven as interest rates skyrocketed over the past 18 months, a good job market and strong consumer spending kept the US economy moving. However, there are growing signs that the strength of the US consumer is starting to crack. Earlier this month, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as expected. At the start of the rate increase, borrowers, like existing homeowners, had low mortgage interest rates locked in. Even dollar stores are starting to feel the pressure of more measured spending after initially benefitting from inflation as wealthier people looked for more value.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley, It'll, Jerome Powell, Powell, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, United Auto Workers, National Association of Business Economics, Bank of America, Conference Board, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, Costco Locations: Michigan

☆ US stocks rise but head for losing week amid spike in bond yields and surging oil prices
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks ticked higher Friday but were on track for a losing week. Oil prices and bond yields surged during the week, with Brent crude up 0.75% Friday. Policymakers made no rate adjustment Wednesday, but could make one more hike before year's end. The major indexes are coming off three consecutive days of losses and remain on track to finish the week in the red as bond yields jump on hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and surging oil prices. After policymakers indicated that rates could remain higher for longer into 2024, bond yields surged, with the 10-year Treasury hitting 4.49%, its highest level since 2007.

Persons: Brent, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Service, Fed, Treasury, Labor Department, Markets, Dow Jones Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ What higher-for-longer Fed policy will mean for the markets and economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

For Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who spoke to the press after the two-day session ended, "Resetting market expectations about real rates was his most important mission," Colas said. But this week's meeting indicated that Fed officials expect rates to stay higher for longer. The thinking there is that if inflation moves lower, the Fed won't need to keep nominal rates as high because real rates will be rising. "But, until one or both of those things happen, higher real rates are the Fed's strategy to tame inflation," Colas said. "This tells us that current equity market churn is unlikely to end until bond markets have settled out."

Persons: wasn't, Nicholas Colas, Jerome Powell, Colas, Krishna Guha, Claudia Sahm, Guha, Powell, Powell's, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Mericle, Goldman doesn't, Mericle, DataTrek's Colas Organizations: DataTrek Research, Companies, Evercore ISI, U.S ., Fed

☆ Gas is rapidly approaching $6 in one state
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

In California, gas prices are rapidly approaching $6 a gallon. Nationally, gas prices remain well below the record of $5.02 set last June. Still, US gas prices climbed this week to $3.88 a gallon, the highest level of the entire year, according to AAA. Boosted by those two nations’ aggressive supply cuts, US oil prices climbed to as high as $93.74 a barrel on Tuesday. And this recent rise in gas prices is causing headaches for some in Washington.

Persons: it’s, That’s, Pain, Joe Biden’s, Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Nicholas Colas, Colas, “, ”, Joe Brusuelas, Andy Lipow, Lipow, Russia don’t, Brent, Goldman Sachs, Vincent Reinhart, RSM’s, Reinhart, ’, Morgan Stanley, Kristina Hooper Organizations: New York CNN, —, AAA, Brent, Federal, DataTrek Research, RSM, Lipow Oil Associates, Rockies, Citigroup, Fed, Mellon Locations: United States, West Coast, In California, Los Angeles, Long Beach, California, Washington and Nevada, Saudi Arabia, Russia, It’s, Washington, OPEC

☆ Warning signs for at least a near-term stock pullback are building
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

One of the potentially big ones is that the S & P 500 on Wednesday closed below its 50-day moving average. That's typically considered a good short-term warning sign that the market is in a downtrend as traders de-risk ahead of potentially turbulent times. Those moves come at a time when other signs are mounting for a potential modest pullback, according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Colas advised investors to watch the Cboe Volatility Index for clues about where the market is heading in the near term. "Longer term investors may want to just sit out this modest pullback," Colas wrote.

Persons: Nicholas Colas, Colas Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla, DataTrek Research, Big Tech

☆ Powell's pivotal speech Friday could see a marked shift from what he's done in the past
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"I just think he's going to play it about as down the middle as possible," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America. "He's got to strike that chord that the Fed is going to finish the job. "He's going to want to be a little more hawkish than neutral. But he's not going to deliver what he delivered last year. A Cleveland Fed inflation tracker anticipates August's figures will show a noticeable jump.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Win Mcnamee, Joseph LaVorgna, circumspect, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, He's, It's, Quincy Krosby, he's, Inflation's, Krosby, Patrick Harker, you've, Harker, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Jackson Organizations: Financial, Federal, Getty, Federal Reserve, Nikko Securities America, Research, National Economic Council, LPL, Cleveland, San Francisco Fed, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Washington , DC, circumspect Powell

☆ Here's more evidence that it's really hard to make money picking stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

And only a handful of stocks have accounted for the bulk of wealth creation in the stock market in the last 30 years. The good news: U.S. companies are far and away the biggest drivers of stock wealth creation in the last 30 years. Stock market wealth is highly concentrated How can this be? Just five stocks accounted for 10% of global net stock market wealth creation over 31 years. The reason, as this paper demonstrates, is that stock returns are not normally distributed over time.

Persons: Hendrik Bessembinder, Johnson, Roche, Kwiechow, Tencent, Tesla, Nicholas Colas, Larry Swedroe, Swedroe, Colas Organizations: Global, CFA, Treasury, Microsoft, Apple, Walmart, Facebook, Samsung, Johnson, Taiwan Semiconductor, Nestle, U.S, DataTrek Research, Strategic, New York Stock Exchange Locations: United States, U.S, China

☆ Markets should brace for a turbulent few weeks as slow motion rate shock continues, DataTrek says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

That's partly because the Fed is unlikely to stop its quantitative tightening regime. The Fed has reduced its balance sheet aggressively over the past year, which could weigh on stocks. As of last week, the Fed has already reduced its balance sheet around $700 billion from the first quarter of 2022, down to $8.2 trillion from $8.9 trillion. Aggressive balance sheet tightening was one of the factors that weighed heavily on stocks last year, with the S&P 500 shedding 20% to notch its worst performance since 2008. "The current slow-motion long-term rate shock has a way to go, in our view, and equity markets will struggle as it evolves.

Persons: DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Colas Organizations: Fed, Service, Reserve, Treasury Locations: Wall, Silicon

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